Home stretch
So we’re coming down to the wire and with every rumor emotions fly between hope and despair. We have a situation where:
- NASA has 2009 as one of the warmest on record (currently #4),
- developed nations are throwing money in a last minute effort (Clinton’s offer for theUSA),
- senior ministers working into the night to forge a solutions (see leaked text), all the riff-raff excluded (i.e. CSAG included),
- China, still the spoiler at the party are positioning themselves as the new green economy
- and over the top emotive media surrounding it all!
So what does this actually mean in real terms for folk like us in CSAG? Well, there is nothing on the table, even when viewed most optimistically, that is going to get us out of the braai pit we’ve dug … at best any agreement will be along the lines of someone picking up a cup of water to cool the fire temporarily. Now, in the face of the trajectory we’re on, more than ever before there’s a need for credible, defensible, and actionable (my current mantra) knowledge generation to inform and guide policy and action for adaptation response to the future of regional and local scale impacts (which just so happens to be our core work profile!) Moreover, the already pressing need for competent and experienced people to stand on the interface between science and society is now urgent — especially as one listens to the nonsense (and that’s charitable) that’s spouted from some quarters — any one want to sign on as a new MSc / PhD student and help fill the void?
Whats the optimist in me say? COP-15 is a step (it was never likely to be all we hoped it would be), it’s moving in the right directions, there’s dialogue, there’s partial acceptance of relative responsibilities, and it’s initiated a move that will add to the momentum of global response. We have some (small) room for maneuvering in the next few years.
What’s the pessimist in me say? It’s not enough now, may well be not enough in the coming years, the rich will ride the troubles (mostly), the poor will suffer further, and the whole steaming mess is morally bankrupt.
What’re the biggest uncertainties in the coming hours? What will Obama say, What will China do, How will the developing nations respond, What last minute pressured arm-twisting is underway, Who’s going to be the loser?
Stay tuned!
