Mortgaging the future to buy the luxury of the present
And the bank manager will demand a return on his investment. Ok, so that is obscurely allegorical, but what else to make of the mess that’s the outcome of COP15? Here are some closing thoughts on this blog about the Copenhagen chaos … an event organized in a way that should never be repeated but leading to an outcome that sets a course for consequence.
The players:
Obama was between a rock and a hard place … effectively too soon in his presidency to make any deeper commitment and yet still hope to pass climate legislation at home. China once again played the long game while resisting any move towards being held accountable. The small island states cried foul (justifiably). The developing nations by and large stuck with the victim card, although making some commendable moves to contribute to the solution. The emerging economies of India, South Africa, and Brazil tried various tactics to remain in play but in my opinion were largely out-maneuvered. Then there were the mavericks that could and should have been more responsible … Canada perhaps leading the way from behind. The NGO’s and activists were locked out (and some were locked up too).
The consequence:
It was a historic event … but that’s not necessarily a compliment! Leadership was largely missing. The default minimum of a delayed accord leaves the world with premiums to pay from taking a loan against the future, and that’s going to really sting in years to come. At the same time, could anything better have been achieved under the circumstances? At the end of the day people did what they did with the requirements they had under the constraints of their circumstances. On the micro-scale there was notable value for the CSAG team and partners (ERC, WRC, etc). On the macro scale the necessity for wise adaptation has suddenly ratcheted up a number of notches.
The coming days:
Is your head spinning yet, because the spin doctors are in full stride already. From the fanfare of failure (e.g here and here) to cautious approval (e.g. here and here) alongside the official positive spin (e.g here). What should be your take on it all? Wrong question! Instead, decide for your self after you’ve looked at the evidence. There’s a flurry of opinionated oratory that opines on outcomes (sorry, couldn’t resist!), and that includes this blog!. But in the end each needs to take responsibility for reaching a conclusion — an attribute sorely missing at COP 15. And if you need a starting point to the evidence, try this.
As for the the CSAG COP 15 team, we’ve split to head around the world to the cold fields of England, snowfields of Scandanavia, the mountains and beaches of South Africa, and home.
Some closing visuals from Copenhagen
Images of the present or the future? Or both?
Hiding faces / Saving faces?
They did What????
Display at the exit to COP 15 venue. Ironic?
CSAG (and the world?) have left the building!
